Friday, 25 March 2011
American influence in Egypt
to date USA spent millions dollars for de-concentration of power and democratization, it resulted in nothing,
Americans put lot of effort to gain popularity in Egypt (especially former president Carter), it is ineffective,
Egypt is becoming first Arab country signing peace with Israel,
Conclusions:
any pressure putted on democratization or transparency will be seen as an insult,
Egyptians see themselves as rising international power, who resents US and don't need foreign aid,
US doesn't have any control over Egypt and wont have any leverage to force Egypt to do anything against its will,
Egypt will not slide into chaos, even after change of regime,
Prescription:
Sending aid to transform the country without conditionalities, expect benefits from growing economic relation and no sympathy from Egyptians.
About Southern Sudan
Short documentary about current situation in Southern Sudan.
Well, there is real and continuous conflict in Southern Sudan, but there are no reasons for country-wide war.
There is obviously large chance of international war, in Abiyei. Although Al-Bashir support separation of the South, it isn't clear he would agree to include this little province.
Secondly there can be lot of problems with shepherds. People, who used to cross newly-made border can become violent.
This would be Republic of South Sudan.
Sudan gets better part of the territory:
Wade hydroelectric dam 
Power grid
Sugar factory
Petrochemicals
Business and tourism centers
Also telecommunication and transportation .
South Sudan doesn't export anything beyond petroleum.
Monday, 21 March 2011
Egypt healthcare, success story
Year 1980, under-five child mortality per 1000 born:
Egypt 176,
Bolivia 170,
Cameroon 168,
Yemen 189,
Madagascar 173,
Lao 188,
Tanzania 176,
India 143,
Brazil 90,
China 59,
USA 15,
Year 2009:
Egypt 21,
Bolivia 51,
Cameroon 154,
Yemen 66,
Madagascar 58,
Lao 59,
Tanzania 108,
India 66,
Brazil 21,
China 19,
USA 7.8.
I cannot say it any other way, healthcare development in the last 30 years of Egypt was remarkable success. Almost unprecedented in history.
Benevolent dictators
Well, there are many historical dictatorial figures, who are remembered as beneficial for their countries.
Gayoom - most benevolent dictator, IMO.
Egypt remember Nasser, who in my opinion had much much worse track record than Mubarak.
Neither of these persons had much democratic legitimacy to speak of. All of them were repressing their political opponents. Nevertheless they are highly regarded in their respectable nations.
Illegal dumping, Ethiopian intervention and ICU in Somalia
1 Illegal waste dumping in Somalia ended many years ago. You are misinformed.
Who exactly is illegally fishing in Somalia?
2 There is no Ethiopian forces in Somalia. Again, you are misinformed.
3 What does forming a stable government of Somalia means. Does anybody, who currently grabs Mogadishu should be legitimate ruler of the country?
You have seen one of these movies "Shooting has stopped for the first time in 20 years."
No it hasn't. For logistic reasons you cannot support military operation during civil war for several years straight. You need to make breaks. You can expect that there will be some period this year, when someone is going to make next movie. He will be probably blaming Uganda and Djibouti for needless intervention and praising Front for Unity of Somalia for "stabilization" of Mogadishu.
Waste dumping happened sometime around 1991 and there is no evidence it continues in your links. There is nothing about illegal fishing in Somalia in your link.
Sorry but how much of the country Islamic Courts Union controlled?
ICU hasn't controlled Al-Shabaab, in effect hadn't got control in Southern Somalia, hadn't got any control in separatist North, controlled by warlords West and much of Central Somalia. They had control over Hizbul Islam, but Al-Shabaab didn't like it, so there is no HI.
I don't think you understand what ICU is. This is lose coalition of sharia juries. These people are going to remain at their role even under TFG and don't have any healthcare, foreign or education policy, I don't think anybody was targeting ICU. Basically every sheikh was speaking for himself.
OK, let's watch this movie.
It may be even same Journeyman Pictures, as your story. Similarly agitated and with west guilt. But this is the year 2000. Government, which don't have USA support is Transitional National Government, predecessor of TFG.
Transitional Federal Government isn't most excellent organisation, but it manages to gather representatives from all parts of the country, presents some policies and show coherent friendly vision.
Urbanization and malaria
More urbanization usually brings malaria down. Similarly economic growth.
In 90's it was South-East Asia has similar level of malaria as Sub-Saharan Africa. Between 1990 and 2006 in Vietnam number of death from malaria has gone down by 99%. There is 100 times less deaths from malaria and I really don't understand how is it so bad.
Compare Pakistan and Bangladesh. Bangladesh has higher population density and lower urbanization and in result more malaria.
I don't think that packing more people together without proper sanitation system or other utilities is bringing development. Vietnam was putting lot of resources in sanitation, similarly Pakistan. Nigeria not so much.
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