Bach Under The Stars

Sunday 7 November 2010

Misquoted lord Kelvin

Lord Kelvin said nothing of this sort.
Actual response for request to join aeronautical society:
I am afraid I am not in the flight for “aerial navigation”. I was greatly interested in your work with kites; but I have not the smallest molecule of faith in aerial navigation other than ballooning or of expectation of good results from any of the trials we hear of. So you will understand that I would not care to be a member of the aĆ«ronautical Society.
Source

Monday 25 October 2010

Paenibacillus dendritiformis

http://www.popsci.com/scitech/article/2009-02/cannibal-bacteria-kills-siblings

Monifa from Toronga Zoo

It is very rare pygmy hippo, called Monifa, born in 2008 in Toronga Zoo.

Pygmy hippo aren't closely related to their giant cousins. They have two subspecies. One living in Liberia/Sierra Leone/Cote d'Ivore and one in Nigeria. They live in the wild in several small colonies.

They are very shy and nocturnal, so they wouldn't make great pets.

More about Monifa:

Gallery

Video

Daniele Tamagni

http://www.photodantam.com/index.html

100 000 Afghani refugees return

http://tribune.com.pk/story/57052/more-than-100000-refugees-return-home/

About Darfur

UNAMID (African Union – United Nations Hybrid Operation in Darfur) is probably largest military operation in history of African Union with 20 000 soldiers and 6 000 policemen stationing in Darfur currently.

About Sub-Saharan Africa

There is unprecedented widespread peace in Sub-Saharan Africa. There is War in Somalia, clashes in South Sudan, some other border conflicts in East Africa, clashes in Central Africa and riots and insurgencies elsewhere. Nonetheless hundreds killed made War in Somalia probably most bloody conflict in Africa this year. 240 or more raped one week in North Kivu are something different than 16 000 in three days in the same region in 2004.

Most murders in Africa are common crimes and there may be half of number you are describing.

Number of victims of road accidents is more than twice as high.

Thursday 7 October 2010

About Congo DR

With creation of Transitional Government of Congo Africa's Great War was ended in 2003.

After the war Kivu conflict lasted for 5 years, but it isn't active as for year 2010.

There is lot of violence in Congo DR, but most of this is mobster activities:

  • human trafficking (forced labour and forced prostitution)

  • robbery,

  • kidnapping for ransom,

  • political assassinations,

There is unprecedented widespread peace in Sub-Saharan Africa. There is War in Somalia, clashes in South Sudan, some other border conflicts in East Africa, clashes in Central Africa and riots and insurgencies elsewhere.

Nonetheless hundreds killed made War in Somalia probably most bloody conflict in Africa this year. 240 or more raped one week in North Kivu are something different than 16 000 in three days in the same region in 2004.

Number of victims of road accidents is more than twice as high. In this time Sub-Saharan Africa have changed. I don't know exactly how.


Mai-Mai:

The Mai Mai militia groups are local defense groups often organized on an ethnic basis who have traditionally fought alongside the government army against “foreign invaders,” including the CNDP (National Congress for the Defense of the People ) and other Rwandan-backed rebel groups. In 2009 there were over 22 Mai Mai groups, ranging greatly in size and effectiveness, in both North and South Kivu. Some joined the Congolese army as part of the rapid integration process, while others refused, angry at the perceived preferential treatment given to the CNDP and unwilling to join the army unless they were able to stay in their communities.

Sudan

About incoming referendum:

* Insist upon, and provide technical assistance for, urgent reform of the GNU’s national security, criminal, and media laws in conformity with the Interim National Constitution, and for reforms to ensure a transparent and impartial national elections commission in the future.

* Consistently and publicly condemn further abuses by the national and Southern Sudanese authorities, such as arbitrary arrests and detentions of political opponents, activists, journalists; repression of assembly and speech; and any other acts of political repression.

* Call on the Government of National Unity to cooperate with the International Criminal Court, and for al-Bashir and other Sudanese ICC suspects to appear in The Hague to respond to charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in Darfur, as required by United Nations Security Council Resolution 1593. Ensure that all interaction with the Sudanese government is consistent with Sudan’s obligation to cooperate with the ICC by avoiding meeting with ICC suspects unless absolutely essential.

* The United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) and African Union-United Nations Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID) should increase human rights monitoring and promotion and protection activities in the lead-up to the referendum. The missions’ human rights units and the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) should increase th e frequency of public reporting on human rights concerns in Sudan and, when necessary, issue statements pressing Sudanese authorities to end specific abuses.

UNAMID (African Union – United Nations Hybrid Operation in Darfur) is probably largest military operation in history of African Union with 20 000 soldiers and 6 000 policemen stationing in Darfur currently.

Monday 27 September 2010

Rwanda's genocide

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Reconciliation-Village-Hosts-Victims-Prepetrators-of-Rwandan-Genocide-103207594.html

Millennium Development Goals




There were major will to establish blueprint of development among most of world's government - Millennium Development Goals.

Short assessment, how currently particular targets are performing:

1. Target - Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day.
Currently it is 27% from 46%. How it may fail?
2. Target - Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger.
It's going to fail outside South-Eastern Asia and Eastern Asia.
3. Target - Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling.
In 1999 there was 16% children out-of-school and 10% in 2008, so faith of this target is waging.
4. Target - Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education no later than 2015.
Girls' to boys' primary education enrolment was 96% in 2008. This target shouldn't fail.
5. Target - Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate.
Every region besides Sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Asia and Oceania should meet the target. Northern Africa made it already.
6. Target - Reduce by three-quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality ratio.
I don't have sufficient data on this one.
7. Target - Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS .
Since 1997 number of new infections is steadily decreasing, so this target was achieved.
8. Target - Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases.
Spread of tuberculosis in Sub-Saharan Africa cannot allow to meet this goal.
9. Target - Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programs and reverse the loss of environmental resources
Well, it failed miserably.
10. Target - Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation
In 1990 there was 23% people without drinking water and 13% in 2008. Outside Sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania this part is already achieved. Improved sanitation is still out-of-reach for rural areas. Only South-Eastern Asia and Northern Africa have already met the target in this aspect.
11. Target - Have achieved by 2020 a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers.
It is wrong target. There was 600 million slums-dwellers in 1990, but nobody knew this when target was conceived.
12. Target - Develop further an open, rule-based, predictable, nondiscriminatory trading and financial system (includes a commitment to good governance, development, and poverty reduction?both nationally and internationally)
Probably failed. I don't know what it means.
13. Address the special needs of the Least Developed Countries (includes tariff- and quota-free access for Least Developed Countries? exports, enhanced program of debt relief for heavily indebted poor countries [HIPCs] and cancellation of official bilateral debt, and more generous official development assistance for countries committed to poverty reduction)
It failed miserably.
14. Address the special needs of landlocked developing countries and small island developing states (through the Program of Action for the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States and 22nd General Assembly provisions)
It failed.
15. Deal comprehensively with the debt problems of developing countries through national and international measures in order to make debt sustainable in the long term.
External debt service burden decreased tremendously, especially in Eastern Asia.
16. Target - In cooperation with developing countries, develop and implement strategies for decent and productive work for youth.
Well, unemployment levels in high-income countries may be currently higher than in middle-income and low-income countries, but I don't think this was the target.
17. In cooperation with pharmaceutical companies, provide access to affordable essential drugs in developing countries.
I don't know.
18. In cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communications technologies.
More people have access to cell phones than to improved sanitation and about 2 billion people have access to internet. It can be greatest success.

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/UN-Launches-40-Billion-Global-Health-Campaign-103528084.html

Friday 17 September 2010

Verve photo

http://vervephoto.wordpress.com/ - works of contemporary photographers.

About Iran

First - Iran had expensive war between 1980 and 1988. Since 1989 income grew significantly. From 1/6 of Saudi's to 1/2 of Saudi Arabia income per person.
In the last 30 years natural gas production have risen more than 10 times and is larger than in Qatar, but Iran is big country and they use all their gas internally.
Iran doesn't have as much crude as Saudi Arabia and production is already declining.
While Iranian economy have to make transition (oil exports will end in the next 10-14 years) and giving away $100b a year in gasoline subsidies was stupid there are notable successes:
100% elementary school enrolment in the last 15 years,
100% vaccination enrolment in the last15 years,
gender equality in literacy,
significant decrease in child mortality,
decrease in fertility rate from 7 to 1.8,
13 years longer live expectancy,
Well, actually economical perspectives for Iran are even worse than I think. It has large percentage of workers in agriculture and poor achievements in maths...

Saturday 4 September 2010

Heavy Drinkers Outlive Nondrinkers, Study Finds

OK, results like this may be effect of uncontrolled confounding.

Maximilian de Courten, Assoc Prof Clin Epidemiology:

A recent paper in the Am J Prev Med tried to estimate the impact of uncontrolled confounding looking at differences of 30 known cardiovascular disease (CVD) factors between moderate drinkers and nondrinkers and demonstrated that 90% of them were more prevalent among nondrinkers. In addition, among factors with multiple risk strata, increasing CVD risk was progressively associated with nondrinking status. There is no reason to believe that this difference should only be limited to abstainers, but not apply to some extent to the whole spectrum of (reduced) drinking behaviour – hence excluding abstainers from analyses would not remove uncontrolled confounding from the findings.

Cardiovascular risk factors and confounders among nondrinking and moderate-drinking U.S. adults. Am J Prev Med 2005; 28: 369-73Study

tl:dr Non-drinkers have overall poor health status due to non-related conditions.

Friday 20 August 2010

Pavlovsk seed bank faces destruction

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/aug/08/pavlovsk-seed-bank-russia

Apparently president was informed about the issue, nevertheless there is not much he can do.

Some historical context (About Nikolai Vavilov)

Do today's girls looks older?


Yes


Examination of US Puberty-Timing Data from 1940 to 1994 for Secular Trends: Panel Findings

Famine in Niger 2010

Niger is now facing the worst hunger crisis in its history, the UN's World Food Programme says, with almost half the population - or 7.3 million people - in desperate need of food.

I want to announce some brighter side of this situation. World Food Program managed to collect more than $100m dollar in donations and feeding campaign has started.

An underlying set of factors makes Niger more vulnerable to food insecurity. These include:

* Extreme poverty -- the country ranks bottom in the 2009 UNDP Human Development Index.

* Niger has one of the highest rates of population increase in the world and highest fertility rate.

* Cereal prices have remained above the pre- food price crisis levels of two years ago.

* A large part of the population is dependent on subsistence farming. Illiteracy amongst female population is highest in the world and most of existing elementary schools was created in last ten years.

* Malnutrition rates in Niger are high: Ten percent of children under five suffer from acute malnutrition and 40 percent of children suffer from chronic malnutrition.

* A harsh environment is made even worse by climate change and the poor management of environmental resources.

You can expect that people started planting new food in this week, or they are going to start in the next, but they cannot harvest the crops before October.


Tuesday 17 August 2010

El NiƱo/Souther Oscillation
















































FAQ

El Nino/Southern Oscillation bulletin

Sharks attacks

They aren't so dangerous, as it seams. In recent 339 years there were 49 fatal shark attacks in United States.

In whole world there have been 464 fatal attacks since 1580.


AFAIK, most of these fatal attacks happened during WWI and WWII (when people were jumping off a sinking ship). Generally speaking being wounded on a sinking ship surrounded by dead crew-members is a bad position to be. It is high on my list places to avoid.

University of Florida advice:

  • Always stay in groups since sharks are more likely to attack a solitary individual.

  • Do not wander too far from shore --- this isolates an individual and additionally places one far away from assistance.

  • Avoid being in the water during darkness or twilight hours when sharks are most active and have a competitive sensory advantage.

  • Do not enter the water if bleeding from an open wound or if menstruating --- a shark's olfactory ability is acute.

  • Wearing shiny jewelry is discouraged because the reflected light resembles the sheen of fish scales.

  • Avoid waters with known effluents or sewage and those being used by sport or commercial fisherman, especially if there are signs of bait fishes or feeding activity. Diving seabirds are good indicators of such action.

  • Sightings of porpoises do not indicate the absence of sharks --- both often eat the same food items.

  • Use extra caution when waters are murky and avoid uneven tanning and bright colored clothing --- sharks see contrast particularly well.

  • Refrain from excess splashing and do not allow pets in the water because of their erratic movements.

  • Exercise caution when occupying the area between sandbars or near steep dropoffs --- these are favorite hangouts for sharks.

  • Do not enter the water if sharks are known to be present and evacuate the water if sharks are seen while there. And, of course, do not harass a shark if you see one!

About under-reporting in food intake surveys

NHANES is a survey study and under-reporting of food intake is pretty well-known.

Google scholar has thousands reports about underestimation of food intake.

Undereating and underrecording of habitual food intake in obese men: selective underreporting of fat intake

Dietary methods research in the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey: underreporting of energy intake

Assessment of Energy Intake Underreporting by Doubly Labeled Water and Observations on Reported Nutrient Intakes in Children

Underreporting of Food Intake by Dietary Recall Is Not Universal: A Comparison of Data from Egyptian and American Women

Actually under-reporting of habitual food intake amongst pregnant American women is so high they should looks like skeletons (according to survey.

You need to know, how read the data. Survey can register changes through time, but it's unreliable as record of events.

Recommendations for Afghanistan concerning women

I. As fas as government is concern:

  • Ensure that all those who agree to the reconciliation process have made explicit their acceptance of the constitutional guarantees of equality for men and women, including the right to an education, the right to work, and the right to participate in political life.

  • Mandate the Constitutional Oversight Committee (appointed but not yet operational) to ensure that reintegration and reconciliation do not breach the constitutional guarantees of women’s rights.

  • Ensure that the reconciliation process includes all elements of society, including women, and ethnic and religious minorities.

  • Commit to a timeline for advancing the Action Plan for Peace, Reconciliation, and Justice in advance of or in tandem with a reconciliation process.

  • Ensure that the High Level Peace Council and the Joint Secretariat for Peace, Reintegration and Reconciliation Programs have a specific mandate to consider the impact of reintegration and reconciliation upon the rights of women and girls.

  • Ensure that background checks are carried out on insurgent commanders to be considered for reintegration and reconciliation, and that political and bureaucratic positions at the district, provincial, or national level are not offered to those who have a track record of rights abuses, including attacks on schools and threats or attacks against women. Reintegrated or reconciling ex-combatants should also be subject to vetting procedures for government positions.

  • Include in reintegration and rehabilitation of former insurgents, appropriate training on women’s rights enshrined in the Afghan constitution, Afghan law (such as the Elimination of Violence Against Women law), and international human rights law.

  • Publicly condemn all attacks against women in public life.

  • Ensure that sufficient security is provided for women in public life who are under threat, and that government security is provided to individuals on the basis of need rather than status or favor. Consider an oversight mechanism to ensure that security provision is needs based.

  • Give priority to investigations into assassinations and other attacks on women in public life, ensure all reported attacks are recorded, prosecute the perpetrators, and identify preventive measures.

  • Ensure that women are appointed to key political roles, including as ministers and deputy ministers.

  • Recognize that a lasting peace will have to address underlying grievances, including addressing past crimes. Consider the use of forums such as the Consultative Peace Jirga to start a national discussion on healing the wounds of the decades of war, how to bring justice for victims of rights abuses, and how to provide protection to vulnerable communities.

  • Repeal the Amnesty Law, and ensure that those against whom there are credible allegations of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and other serious human rights abuses are excluded from the reconciliation process.

  • Commit to a timeline for advancing the Action Plan for Peace, Reconciliation and Justice in advance of or in tandem with a reconciliation process.

  • Strengthen existing vetting and complaints mechanisms for elections as well as political, bureaucratic, and judicial appointments so that individuals against whom there are credible allegations of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and other serious human rights abuses from all existing and former armed factions are excluded from public office.

  • Build transparent and credible dispute resolution and accountability mechanisms into the reintegration and reconciliation process, including measures to address grievances against government officials. Ensure that the government officials implementing these accountability mechanisms are not themselves subject to complaints from the local communities.

II. As far as International Military Forces are concern:

  • Provide assistance for government background checks and vetting of those to be included in reintegration and reconciliation programs, and offer verification of background checks where intelligence is available, particularly regarding those being considered for political office.

  • Recognize that civilian casualties, night raids and detention practices have helped fuel the insurgency, continue efforts to reduce unnecessary deaths, and fully investigate and hold accountable military personnel responsible for wrongful acts.

  • Ensure that international military assistance to reintegration efforts does not exacerbate impunity or corruption, and that any engagement with communities or individuals seeking reintegration or reconciliation involves adequate intelligence and background checks for serious allegations of human rights abuses including attacks on women and girls’ education.

  • Ensure that women’s security is a key consideration for the international military in all its reintegration and reconciliation efforts, including funding that is separate from the Peace and Reintegration Trust Fund, such as the Commanders’ Emergency Response Program.

Sunday 8 August 2010

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Lets find out what panels of experts think about it.

UN lists in Millennium Development Goals:

  • End Poverty and Hunger,

  • Universal Education,

  • Gender Equality,

  • Child Health,

  • Maternal Health,

  • Combat HIV/AIDS,

  • Environmental Sustainability,

  • Global Partnership,

For $120m you can have several km of road or maybe more than 1 km of metro. Same grand could boost productivity for 280 000 small-holder farmers in Rwanda. Source.

For price of single metro line GAVI funded:

  • 233 million vaccines against hepatitis B.

  • 60 million vaccines against Hib.

  • 69 million vaccines against DTP3 (diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis),

  • over 200 million disposable syringes,

  • vaccines against yellow fever, pneumococcus, rotavirus and other projects.

Solar Cycle 24

http://www.solarcycle24.com/

Global Warming

OK, lets start with human contribution.
Human activities contribute to climate change by causing changes in Earth’s atmosphere in the amounts of greenhouse gases, aerosols (small particles), and cloudiness. The largest known contribution comes from the burning of fossil fuels, which releases carbon dioxide gas to the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases and aerosols affect climate by altering incoming solar radiation and out-going infrared (thermal) radiation that are part of Earth’s energy balance. Changing the atmospheric abundance or properties of these gases and particles can lead to a warming or cooling of the climate system. Since the start of the industrial era (about 1750), the overall effect of human activities on climate has been a warming influence. The human impact on climate during this era greatly exceeds that due to known changes in natural processes, such as solar changes and volcanic eruptions.


Now, can we say much about climate based on one year of unusually high temperature anomaly? **NO** Only 10 years or so of high temperature anomaly could be attribute to change in climate. Describing climate based on 6 months of observation is stupid.


Favourite contrarian argument are there:
  • plate tectonics,
  • Milankovic cycles,
  • Pacific Decadal Oscillation,
  • solar irradiance,
  • volcanoes,

About blog-post "10 poorest countries"

I want to point out, how disingenuous this list is.

On this graph I've putted health and income in these countries and China in times of Mao for comparison.

Author putted such disastrous sub-Saharan states like Congo Democratic Republic, Liberia or Zimbabwe with quite successful like Ethiopia or Comoros and strangely Solomon Island, which are richer and almost as healthy as Bangladesh.

Difference between Comoros and Niger is relatively like difference between USA and Brazil.

List according to IMF shoul be:
  • Malawi,
  • Togo,
  • Sierra Leone,
  • Central African republic,
  • Niger,
  • Eritrea,
  • Liberia,
  • Burundi,
  • Zimbabwe,
  • and Democratic Republic of Congo.

Straddling bus

http://www.chinahush.com/2010/07/31/straddling-bus-a-cheaper-greener-and-faster-alternative-to-commute/

Stargate Studio - Chroma Key Reel (2009)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VtivDgywby0&hd=1

Environmental impact of water desalination

Environmental Impacts of CSP Desalination

About wind power and wind turbines

Great, but do steel mills run on wind power? How much oil, coal and natural gas do you need to build wind turbine?

How much Dysprosium and how much Neodymium does single wind turbine need? Where are new mines for these metal being opened? How much they are going to produce? At what environmental and economical cost?

These metals are the same as used in electric engines. How large portion of their resource are GE and other companies are willing to spend on wind turbines?

These are hard questions.

Dubai

This is common misconception in reality it is much poorer than neighbouring Abu Dhabi.

Current ruler of Dubai is very involved in speculation of immobilities, so he spend large money on advertisements and PR.

Wealth of Dubai is largely just facade. You can't build entire economy on real estate. Dubai lacs industry, education and healthcare.

Battery Cost Forecasts and The Origin of Specious (With Humble Apologies to Darwin)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/216145-battery-cost-forecasts-and-the-origin-of-specious-with-humble-apologies-to-darwin

Deep Underground, Miles of Hidden Wildfires Rage

A surprising number of us live close to them. According to a review by the Department of Interior's Office of Surface Mining Enforcement and Reclamation, more than 100 fires are burning beneath nine states, most of them in Colorado, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Utah and West Virginia. But geologists say many fires go unreported, driving the actual number of them closer to 200 across 21 states

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2006195,00.html#ixzz0w0ks0E8H

Friday 23 July 2010