http://peakoiljournal.com/ - current oil news.
Case of Saudi Arabia - although arguments aren't strong.
http://www.theoildrum.com/ - best source of information. Site with very lively discussion about fossil fuels upstream and downstream.
FACTBOX-Oil reserves: declining - but how fast?
Bear with me.
Firstly we need all of power sources.
Allowing fifty years to develop each replacement, one cubic mile of oil could be replaced by any one of these developments:
- 4 Three Gorges Dams, developed each year for 50 years, or
- 52 nuclear power plants, developed each year for 50 years, or
- 104 coal-fired power plants[, developed each year for 50 years, or
- 32,850 wind turbines, developed each year for 50 years, or
- 91,250,000 rooftop solar photovoltaic panels[ developed each year for 50 years need to in order to curb our carbon dioxide emissions.
- This sounds good, but nobody is doing this.
See graph. Run it forward. Everybody wants to be in right upper corner. Look there. People need to use power to live in higher standard. And they getting there quickly. Sudan have better healthcare and higher income than Japan 70 years ago and it would be surprising, if it will take Sudanese whole 70 years to reach current Japanese levels. Now realize that all this statistics were per person.This is world population trend. It will reach 9 billion in 2050 just because there are lot of teenagers now. They are going to have children and their children are going to have their own children. Not because large families. World's healthcare improved drastically and people are going to live much longer.
Now. Step back. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
You are now aware, that by the year 2050 world may have half of today's petroleum production rate.
This means half cubic mile of oil per year less. With population growth and growing needs of average consumer we have to add two new CMO/year. Unless we take to consideration environmental impact.
No comments:
Post a Comment