Bach Under The Stars

Monday 21 March 2011

People aren't dying

Let me give you an example of Sweden. 50 years ago it has crude death rate about 10 per thousand per year, one of lowest in the world. Today it has one of the highest, 10 per thousand per year.

There is number of countries with crude death rate below 5/1000 per year, like Mexico. It can have no newborn baby for next 20 years and its population will decrease by 10%. But its population increased by 11% in the last 9 years.

Let me reiterate this. If Mexico will have no children whatsoever until 2030 it will have population from 2001.

Japan has fertility rate below 2 for 50 years and in this time its population increased by 34 millions. It will take at least another 50 years for population to decrease to 1960 level, assuming fertility level lower than today, 1 child per woman.

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